Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: historical data predicts expanding gap in H2

Quick Take
Bitcoin remains the benchmark for global assets performance, boasting an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63%. Despite a recent price drawdown, it remains one of the best-performing assets in 2024, up around 30%. In contrast, Ethereum faces the challenge of outperforming Bitcoin. The recent launch of an Ethereum ETF resulted in over $2.2 billion worth of outflows from Grayscale’s ETHE, creating short-term price headwinds. However, consecutive inflows on the past two trading days suggest this phase has passed.
Year-to-date, Ethereum has only risen by 8%, lagging behind gold (up 16%) and the S&P 500 (up 11%). The ETH/BTC ratio has declined by 17% this year, currently at just 0.043. Meanwhile, Solana has surged 40% YTD, further outpacing Ethereum in 2024.
BTCUSD, SOLUSD, Gold, ETHUSD, SPX, ETHBTC YTD: (Source: TradingView)
Examining historical performance using Coinglass data, splitting Ethereum’s returns into H1 and H2. The first half (H1) averages an 18.08% return, while the second half (H2) averages just 3.61%. Bitcoin’s historical data shows an H1 return of approximately 8.83% and an H2 return of 13.24%. This trend suggests that the performance gap between Bitcoin and Ethereum will likely widen based on historical patterns.
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