Bitcoin Poised for Short-Term Rally as Coinbase Premium Signals Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin is yet to climb above the much-anticipated $70,000 despite several notable upside moves.
However, data points to BTC’s short-term uptrend potential, based on the Coinbase Premium Index. In such a scenario, the crypto asset could see a possible price rally.
Bitcoin’s Price Rally Soon?
By examining the Coinbase Premium Index on a 1-hour time frame, CryptoQuant analyst ‘Yonsei_dent’ observed significant price movements when the daily (24-hour) moving average breaks through the weekly (168-hour) moving average.
Historical data shows that such a crossover, often forming a golden cross, tends to trigger short-term price increases. Currently, the daily moving average has temporarily surpassed the weekly. This indicates a potential bullish momentum.
With bitcoin’s price around $67,000, a key support level tied to the September high, and a consistent pattern of higher highs and lows since August, the analyst anticipates the market is building a clear upward structure.
A similar sentiment was echoed by analysts at Kaiko, who highlighted the negative Kimchi Premium. This, in fact, could also signal a potential upcoming rally for bitcoin despite the current downturn in the South Korean market.
This premium measures the difference in BTC prices between Korean exchanges and global platforms, and it has now turned negative for the second time since September. The trend reflects declining investor sentiment in South Korea, where BTC is trading lower even as global prices rise.
Contributing factors include strict government capital controls that limit foreign trading on local exchanges and a constrained supply of cryptocurrencies available on platforms like Upbit, which offers far fewer coins than its global counterparts. Historically, a negative Kimchi Premium has often preceded significant price increases for bitcoin.
Increased Retail Participation
It is also important to note that BTC is seeing a noticeable resurgence in retail on-chain activity following a four-month period of low engagement. The volume of on-chain transactions under $10,000 has increased, indicating renewed interest from smaller, non-institutional investors.
Over the last 30 days, retail demand has risen by 13%, marking a significant recovery compared to prior months of decline. This level of participation resembles activity levels from March when BTC approached its most recent all-time high.
While whale transactions remained strong during the lull, the recent uptick in bitcoin prices suggests reduced risk aversion among small investors, potentially leading to increased retail momentum in the market.
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