Quick Take
Kamala Harris has surged ahead in Polymarket’s betting odds for the upcoming US Presidential election, marking a significant shift in the race. As of Aug. 12, Harris holds a 52% chance of winning, overtaking Donald Trump for the second time. This rise is particularly striking given that she had just a 1% chance of victory as recently as June 27 prior to Biden dropping out. Harris first reached the 50% mark on Aug. 10, and her momentum continued with the recent announcement of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate on Aug. 6.
Kamal Harris Election odds: (Source: Polymarket)
Polymarket, a popular prediction market, has seen a total of $574 million bet on the election outcome, highlighting the intense interest and speculation surrounding this year’s contest.
Presidential Election Winner 2024: (Source: Polymarket)
As Donald Trump became associated with Bitcoin, often dubbed the ‘Bitcoin candidate,’ his odds of winning the election surged to a peak of 72% on July 16. This coincided with Bitcoin’s rally, which reached $70,000 by July 29 during the Bitcoin Nashville conference. However, both Trump’s odds and Bitcoin’s price have since experienced a decline. However, the correlation has recently weakened. Trump has also fallen behind on non-crypto betting sites and prediction markets.
In a related development, Elon Musk has confirmed on X (formerly Twitter) that he will conduct a live interview with Donald Trump at 8 P.M. ET on Aug. 12, further intensifying the focus on the candidates as the election approaches.
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